The year 2021 has closed in the olive oil market with a new adjustment of prices at the origin. One of the main causes of this increase can be found in the great shortage of lampante oils, both oils from last season and new ones. The great quality of the new olive oils that have been obtained in the months of October, November and December, is leading to lower availability of lampante oils destined for the refinery. And this rise in prices in the lower category is also leading to a readjustment of the higher categories, depending on their physical, chemical and organoleptic characteristics.

With these precedents, it can be said that we have entered the new year with a certain mismatch between supply and demand: A very firm supply that endures without wanting to part with large items and a demand that expects prices to ease in January & February when the collection is 100% throughout Spain and there is more supply available. The situation has kept the same during the first week of February: Little supply from the large producer groups and low demand from the refiners and large packers.

After collecting data corresponding to the three months of the current 2021/22 campaign, the Food Information and Control Agency (AICA) has just released its first provisional estimates on the behavior of the sector and the oil market olive in Spain. Now the doubt is if the forecast of the Junta de Andalucía, the government of the Southern Spanish region, is finally fulfilled or, on the contrary, we are facing higher figures.

On the other hand, if the estimated production figures in the main producing countries (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal) remain around 1.9 million tons of olive oil and a consumption of 1.5 million tons, the link stock between campaigns could be at levels around 465,000 tons, much lower than the stocks that have been handled in the four campaigns prior to the current one.