If the climatology allows it, and with the prudence that the agricultural production forecasts require, the next production of olive oil would be around 1,7 million tonnes in the European Union, that means a decrease of 25 % versus the last campaign.

Spain, the main provider worldwide of olive oil will show an important decrease of almost 50% reaching 780.000 tonnes. A graphic bellow whose source is the Spanish Government, exactly the Agriculture Ministry, can be seen:

The summer in Spain was very hot with high temperatures and no rain. Even the temperatures were very high during the first weeks of autumn; these are the reasons why the forecast is so short.

However, this forecast could improve if it rains during the next weeks because oil yield would increase. On the other hand, there is still a big volume of olive oil from the last campaign, bigger than other years, so there are some elements to become an optimist and to get price stability during the next months.

Regarding other European countries, even Italy is expected to have a decreased production reaching 200.000 tonnes, and Portugal will even experience a decrease of almost 30%.

Greece could be the only country in the European Union where the harvest could increase reaching 320.000 Tonnes, but this figure volume would mean only 41 % of the Spanish harvest.

Out of the European Union, Turkey could get until 420.000 Tonnes this year, but only 53.85 % of the Spanish volume, and Tunisia is expected to have even a decreased production of a 15 % reaching 200.000 Tonnes because of the short rain in the centre and south of the country.

Taking into consideration these figures and volumes, Spain will be once more year the key to maintaining a price stability in the olive oil sector during the following months.